The Nowcasting model
The nowcasting model forecasts Finnish GDP growth in the present and following quarter.
The model utilises a group of nearly 50 variables, and the nowcast is updated in real-time in connection with new statistical releases. In addition to the nowcast, the model generates a news analysis, which enables the assessment of the impact of new statistical releases on revisions in the GDP growth nowcast.
The model was developed at the Bank of Finland and it utilises the most recent research literature. The nowcast of GDP growth is model-based and its purpose is to illustrate the information provided by a large group of variables on GDP developments. The model incorporates data on the monthly and quarterly frequencies. Because no higher frequency data is used, the model adjusts only gradually to rapidly changing economic conditions.
The nowcast is not an official forecast of the Bank of Finland. The Bank of Finland publishes twice a year (in December and June) a forecast for the Finnish economy, available on the website https://www.bofbulletin.fi